North Star: AI-Powered ‘Peace Tech’ Simulating World Leaders to Prevent War

Harvard Professor’s New Conflict-Prediction Platform Gives Diplomats Advanced Warning

Anadyr Horizon’s North Star is an experimental “peace tech” system founded by former Harvard political scientist Arvid Bell.  It uses advanced AI to create highly realistic digital twins of global leaders (even modeling factors like sleep deprivation) and places them in virtual scenarios to see how crises might unfold.  In live demos (such as at the recent AI+ Expo in Washington, DC) Bell showcased North Star’s retro-style Oregon Trail–like interface, which runs thousands of parallel simulations (“multiverses”) with slight variations – e.g. whether a key general arrived late or the sequence of strategy talks changed – to map out possible outcomes.  For each scenario, North Star produces a probabilistic forecast (e.g. “60% likelihood of escalation if a no-fly zone is imposed”) and even generates detailed intelligence briefs (like a hypothetical Russian SVR report on strikes) to give policymakers realistic insights into potential next moves.

• Digital Twin Simulation: North Star builds virtual proxies of leaders (e.g. Putin, Zelensky, Biden) that behave like the real individuals.  The models incorporate personality, historical behavior patterns and even current conditions (Bell notes it can emulate how a sleep-deprived Putin – reportedly surviving on four hours’ sleep – might react differently than if he were well-rested).

• Massive Scenario Analysis: By tweaking variables slightly and running thousands of universes, the AI explores a wide range of what-if outcomes.  Each run tweaks things like a minister’s schedule or an advisor’s suggestion order, letting diplomats see even low-probability chains of events.

• Strategic Insights: Beyond raw forecasts, North Star highlights negotiation opportunities – flagging which leaders might be receptive to back-channel talks during a crisis.  This guidance could be invaluable for peacemakers seeking to de-escalate.

• Real-World Testcase: Bell’s team used North Star to simulate the consequences of a Ukraine no-fly zone.  The AI predicted about a 60% chance of further Russian escalation in that scenario, illustrating the tool’s potential to inform high-stakes policy choices.

• Expert Collaboration: North Star was co-developed with Nobel laureate physicist Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress.  Dalnoki-Veress experimented with AI agent debates (getting bots to argue or lie to win) before teaming up with Bell, lending strong technical and scientific expertise.

AI-Powered Peace Tech High-Level Interest:

The project has drawn attention from top strategists.  For example, Bell and his cofounders were asked to give a private demo to the office of Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO and now a prominent tech/defense advisor), underscoring the perceived significance of this innovation.

Bell emphasizes that North Star’s mission is peaceful: “I want to simulate what breaks the world. I don’t want to break the world,” he says.  The system’s goal is to give leaders months of advance warning – a lesson drawn from history.  The company’s name Anadyr references the Soviet code name for the 1962 Cuba missile deployment. Bell notes that if JFK had access to a tool like North Star during the Cuban Missile Crisis, “instead of having 13 days to respond, he might have had six months”. In this way, North Star acts as a sort of strategic early-warning radar, simulating conflict dynamics long before crises fully erupt.

Analysts see a big future for “peace tech.”  Conflict currently burdens the global economy by some estimates (roughly $19 trillion in losses in 2023 alone), yet peacebuilding yields enormous returns (an IMF study suggests each $1 invested in prevention can save ~$103 downstream).  Investor Brian Abrams of B Ventures compares peace tech to the nascent days of climate tech: just a decade ago climate tech was tiny, now it sees some $50 billion in annual investment.  Abrams says, “Peace tech is going after a huge market” – and indeed, Anadyr is already marketing to both governments and corporate risk teams that want to simulate the impact of unrest on international business.  Some analysts project the peace-tech industry could reach billion-dollar scale by 2025, especially as geopolitical tensions grow worldwide.

Looking ahead, North Star and similar tools could reshape crisis management.  By providing data-driven forecasts and negotiation strategies, they promise to transform how diplomats prepare for flashpoints – from Taiwan Strait standoffs to Middle East hotspots.  However, experts also caution that reliance on algorithmic predictions carries risks (misinterpreting probabilities, or escalation based on faulty inputs).  As one commentator notes, North Star is meant to safeguard peace – not manipulate power. In the final analysis, the AI itself is neutral: “data doesn’t start wars. People do,” Bell observes. The real question will be how wisely leaders use these unprecedented insights to prevent conflicts rather than inadvertently create them.

Key Takeaways:

• Anadyr Horizon’s North Star system uses AI to create digital twins of world leaders and simulate thousands of crisis scenarios.

• In demonstrations (e.g. a Ukraine no-fly zone) it has forecast outcomes – predicting a ~60% chance of Russian escalation when a no-fly zone is imposed.

• Developed with Nobel physicist Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress and backed by venture funders (including interest from Eric Schmidt’s team), North Star exemplifies the emerging peace tech sector.

• Advocates argue it could give leaders months of warning before crises (analogous to extending JFK’s 13 days to 6 months), potentially saving lives and money.

• Critics urge caution: misuse or over-reliance on AI forecasts might inadvertently escalate tensions, highlighting that technology must be paired with sound policy judgment.

Conclusion:

North Star represents a bold new approach at the intersection of AI-powered peace tech and diplomacy.  By turning historical and behavioral data into living simulations, it offers unprecedented foresight into how conflicts might unfold.  If accurate and responsibly used, such tools could greatly expand the toolbox of peacemakers – transforming global security from reactive to predictive. The success of North Star will depend on continued validation, transparency of its models, and above all, on leaders heeding its warnings before crises escalate. The emergence of this “peace tech” not only signals a potent trend in innovation but also a hopeful reorientation: using digital transformation to end wars rather than wage them.